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Otiox Command · Accuracy & Calibration

A forecast is a claim about the world. Claims should be tested.

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Every prediction Otiox makes is kept like any other record — frozen at the moment it was made, attached to the order, lot or invoice it concerned, and later set beside what actually happened. Detector by detector, you see whether 'seventy percent' truly meant seventy percent, and where confidence has yet to be earned.
app.otiox.comFig. 00
Accuracy & calibration
Every prediction is frozen as it was made and checked against what then happened.
43 predictions with a known outcomeBrier score 0.2564last 180 daysModerate
Stockout riskNot enough data
Brier
0.1433
Came true
83 %
Said / happened
90 % / 83 %
6 decided · 5 happened
Invoice payment riskNot enough data
Brier
0.0400
Came true
100 %
Said / happened
80 % / 100 %
9 decided · 9 happened
Late productionNot enough data
Brier
0.1810
Came true
71 %
Said / happened
76 % / 71 %
14 decided · 10 happened
Lot expiringNot enough data
Brier
0.7275
Came true
0 %
Said / happened
85 % / 0 %
6 decided · 0 happened
01

Confidence, measured.

Most systems describe their forecasts as intelligent. Otiox shows its record instead: every call it made, what happened next, and the score that follows.
Prediction ledgerappend-only
02 Sep · MO-PRED-0001
82 %
05 Sep · RM-STEEL-04
64 %
09 Sep · INV-2026-0188
80 %
Edited after the fact
0
01

Frozen predictions

The likelihood, the record and the moment are written once and never edited. No quiet revision after the fact, no benefit of hindsight.

A record that cannot be rewritten

Brier score · last 180 daysModerate
Whole engine
0.2564
Perfect
0.0000
Coin toss
0.2500
Predictions with an outcome
43
02

A Brier score, explained

One measure of overall accuracy, in plain terms: zero is perfect, a quarter is a coin toss. Shown for the engine as a whole and for each detector.

Reliability, understood at a glance

Calibration · said vs happened
Invoice payment risk
80 % / 100 %
Stockout risk
90 % / 83 %
Late production
76 % / 71 %
Lot expiring
85 % / 0 %
03

Calibration per detector

A reliability chart for every detector compares what it said with how often it came true. Over- and under-confidence become visible immediately.

Trust placed where it is deserved

Lot expiring · detectorNot enough data
Decided
6
Happened
0
Did not
6
Calibration
withheld
04

An honest 'not enough data'

A detector whose outcomes are all of one kind cannot yet be calibrated — and Otiox says so, rather than inventing a confidence it does not have.

No false precision

Outcomes · last 180 days
Happened
26
Did not happen
12
Averted by an action
5
Still open
9
05

Outcomes, including the averted

Each prediction resolves as happened, did not happen, averted by an action, or still open. A risk you prevented is not held against the engine.

Prevention counted, not hidden

Engine readiness
Window
180 days
Known outcomes
43
Detectors with enough data
0 of 50
Trend
improving
06

Readiness, visible

How many predictions have a known outcome, over which window, and how many detectors have enough evidence to stand on their own.

An engine seen maturing over time

02

Every score traces back to its evidence.

Each figure on the page is computed from a single append-only ledger of predictions. Open any score and you arrive at the exact predictions and outcomes that produced it.
  1. 01
    The moment each prediction was made
  2. 02
    The record it concerned, with its full history
  3. 03
    What the engine said, and what then happened
  4. 04
    Averted outcomes linked to the intervention behind them
app.otiox.com
Prediction ledger
Written once, never edited. The score is computed from these rows only.
Frozen atRecordSaidOutcome
02 Sep, 08:14MO-PRED-000182 %Happened
05 Sep, 08:11RM-STEEL-0464 %Averted
09 Sep, 08:15INV-2026-018880 %Happened
14 Sep, 08:10LOT-2026-09785 %Did not
21 Sep, 08:12SO-PRED-000257 %Still open
03

How a prediction earns its score

Five steps — automatic, and entirely on the record.
  1. 01

    Predict

    A detector raises a risk with a likelihood

  2. 02

    Freeze

    The claim is written once and cannot be edited

  3. 03

    Observe

    The record is followed until the outcome is known

  4. 04

    Resolve

    Happened, did not, averted, or still open

  5. 05

    Score

    Brier score and calibration update per detector

04

Knowing which forecasts deserve your weight.

Calibration turns 'the system says eighty percent' into something a business can plan around. When a detector's eighty percent comes true roughly eighty percent of the time, buffers, promises and purchases can rest on it.
  1. 01
    Brier score and calibration error per detector
  2. 02
    How often each detector came true, and what it said
  3. 03
    Decided, happened, did-not, averted and open counts
  4. 04
    Rolling windows of 30, 90 or 180 days
app.otiox.com
Command · accuracy
Was it right?
Predictions frozen and scored
MeasureValueMeaning
Known outcomesFortyLast six months
Brier scoreNear a quarterCoin-toss level
Calibrated detectorsNone yetNeed more data
Confidence shown as is
Score

Check every prediction against what happened.

Trust earned, not assumed.

05

The idea, applied.

Scenarios from the demo workspace, walked through step by step — on the same data you receive when you sign up.
01

Forecast accuracy

Every prediction frozen and checked against what happened.
02

Decisions with evidence

Who decided, on what evidence, and what followed.
03

Lead-time drift

The supplier grew slower. The reorder point did not notice.
06

One living model, seven ways of seeing it.

Every Command view reads the same things, the same relationships and the same history. An answer found in one becomes evidence in all the others.
01

Predictive Engine

Risks, forecasts and what-if scenarios, explained
02

Investigations & Causal Map

Why things happened, with evidence for and against
03

Decisions & Interventions

Who decided, on what evidence, and whether it worked
04

Explorer & Dependency Map

Everything a record is related to, and what is at risk
05

Time Machine

Any record or stock exactly as it was on a date
06

Rules & Controls

Company rules monitored, with attested control runs
07

Questions

01What is a Brier score?
A measure of how close probabilistic predictions were to what happened. Zero is perfect; 0.25 is what you would score by always saying fifty percent. Lower is better.
02Can anyone edit a prediction after the fact?
No. Predictions are frozen when they are made. Outcomes are added later; the original claim never changes.
03Why do some detectors show 'Not enough data'?
Calibration requires a mix of outcomes. If every case so far has gone the same way, a score would be meaningless, so Otiox says so instead of displaying false confidence.
04Does preventing a risk count against the engine?
No. When an intervention is recorded against a risk and the risk does not occur, the outcome is marked as averted and kept apart from 'did not happen'.
Otiox

Hold every forecast to account.

Open the demo workspace and review 43 real predictions, the outcomes that followed, and the scores they earned.

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