01
Frozen predictions
Every prediction is stored as it was made — it cannot be improved afterwards.
Forecast Accuracy
The forecast said all is well. Was it ever right?
Forecasts are trusted until they fail, and nobody keeps score. Otiox freezes every prediction when it is made and checks it against what then happened — how often it came true, the Brier score, calibration error — and shows demand forecasts chosen by testing several methods on past sales, with an honest range.
app.otiox.comFig. 00
Command · accuracy
Was it right?
Predictions frozen and scored
MeasureValueMeaning
Known outcomesFortyLast six months
Brier scoreNear a quarterCoin-toss level
Calibrated detectorsNone yetNeed more data
Confidence shown as is
Score
Check every prediction against what happened.
Trust earned, not assumed.
01The Challenge
Nobody checks the forecast after the fact.
A forecast is made, acted on, and forgotten. When it is wrong the plan is blamed; when it is right nobody notices. Without a score, nobody knows how much to trust the next one.
- 01Predictions never checked
- 02Confidence taken at face value
- 03One method used for every item
- 04No range, only a number
02SEE IT IN OTIOX
The same situation, in the product.
Real screens from the Otiox demo workspace, step by step.
- 01
Accuracy & calibration
Predictions with known outcomes, the Brier score and readiness per detector.
- 02
Forecasts
What runs out first, at recent rates plus incoming purchase orders.
03
How It Works
Purpose-built features that solve these exact problems.
02
Scored against reality
How often it came true, the Brier score and calibration error.
03
Forecasts tested per item
Several methods tested on past sales; the best one is used, with an eighty percent range.
04
Freeze a forecast
Freeze it now and check later how close it was.
04
What You'll Gain
Tangible improvements that impact your bottom line.
- 01Trust you can measure
Know which predictions to act on.
- 02Honest uncertainty
A range, not a false precision.
- 03Better methods per item
No one-size-fits-all.
- 04Missed risks visible
Late orders nobody flagged are counted too.
05
Real-World Scenarios
See how this works in practice.
Scenario 1
Engine calibration
Forty predictions with known outcomes, scored with a Brier score.
Scenario 2
Demand forecast
An item's expected demand, range and the day stock runs out.
Scenario 3
Frozen check
A forecast frozen a month ago compared with actual sales.
06
The Transformation
From chaos to clarity.
Before
- Predictions forgotten
- Confidence unquestioned
- One method for all
- Single number
After
- Predictions frozen
- Scored against outcomes
- Best method per item
- Range with every forecast
07
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to common questions.
01What is the Brier score?
A measure of probability forecasts: zero is perfect, a quarter is a coin toss.
02Does Otiox adjust its own confidence?
No. The engine's confidence is shown as is and never changed on this page.
03How is the forecast method chosen?
Several methods are tested on past sales per item; the one that did best is used.
04When is calibration reliable?
When enough predictions have known outcomes; the page shows readiness per detector.
Forecast Accuracy
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