01
Measured, not promised
The Predictive Engine compares expected and actual delivery on every receipt and tracks the average lateness per supplier.
Lead-Time Drift
Your buyer stopped trusting the lead times in the system. The supplier now delivers five days late, every time — and the reorder point still assumes it doesn't.
Reorder points are sized once and forgotten. When a supplier slowly drifts later, the buffer stops covering the real wait, and the stockout arrives before the next delivery. Otiox's Predictive Engine measures actual delivery against promise on every receipt and warns you while the buffer can still be fixed.
app.otiox.comFig. 00
Predictive · lead-time drift
Buffer sized for a supplier that no longer exists
Shenzhen Precision · Precision PCB
SignalMeasuredValue
Average lateness6 receipts5 days
AvailablePrecision PCB120 pcs
Reorder pointsized for on-time80 pcs
Stockout window: ~9 days
Recommended
Raise the reorder point to cover 5 extra days, or order from a second supplier.
Reorder point 110. Replenishment triggers before the buffer runs out.
01The Challenge
The real lead time lives in a spreadsheet.
Six receipts in a row arrived about five days late. The buyer knows — every order is padded by hand and the real numbers live in a private file. The system doesn't: its reorder point still triggers as if deliveries were on time. The day the buyer is on holiday, the line runs out.
- 01Lead times and reorder points are set once and never revisited
- 02Lateness is spread over many receipts, so nobody sees the trend
- 03Buyers compensate privately, outside the system
- 04The stockout shows up before anyone connects it to the supplier
02SEE IT IN OTIOX
The same situation, in the product.
Real screens from the Otiox demo workspace, step by step.
- 01
See the forecast
Predictive insights: Shenzhen Precision is 5 days late on average over 6 receipts; the Precision PCB buffer no longer covers it.
- 02
Check the supplier's record
On the supplier's page: on-time rate, days late and receipts.
- 03
Raise the reorder point
On the material, Inventory Settings: reorder point from 80 to 110, then save.
03
How It Works
Purpose-built features that solve these exact problems.
02
Buffer check
It sets the drift against the material's reorder point and available stock and tells you when the buffer no longer covers the real wait.
03
Cascade to production
One card shows the chain: supplier drifting → buffer inadequate → replenishment lands after the buffer runs out.
04
The supplier's record
On-time rate, average days late and receipts, on the supplier's page.
05
A clear recommendation
Raise the reorder point or safety stock to cover the extra days, or order from a second supplier.
04
What You'll Gain
Tangible improvements that impact your bottom line.
- 01The real lead time in the system
Not in someone's private file.
- 02Warned while there is time
The forecast arrives about nine days before the expected stockout.
- 03Buffers that match reality
Reorder points move when suppliers do.
- 04One less single point of knowledge
The system knows what the buyer knows.
05
Real-World Scenarios
See how this works in practice.
Scenario 1
Five days late, six receipts in a row
Shenzhen Precision (demo) now delivers Precision PCB about five days late on average.
Scenario 2
Buffer no longer covers it
120 available against a reorder point of 80 — sized for deliveries that arrive on time.
Scenario 3
Reorder point raised
In the demo the reorder point goes from 80 to 110 so replenishment triggers earlier.
06
The Transformation
From chaos to clarity.
Before
- Lead times set once, never checked
- Lateness invisible across receipts
- Buyers pad orders privately
- Stockout blamed on bad luck
After
- Actual lateness measured per supplier
- Buffer checked against the real wait
- Recommendation: raise the buffer or dual-source
- Reorder point updated in the material
07
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to common questions.
01How is the drift measured?
From receipts: the expected delivery date on the purchase order against the date the goods actually arrived, averaged over the supplier's recent receipts.
02Does Otiox change the reorder point for me?
No. The forecast recommends it and you change it on the material. It is a planning decision that depends on how much you use.
03How much should I raise it?
Enough to cover the extra days of waiting at your normal usage — the forecast tells you how many extra days. In the demo we raised Precision PCB from 80 to 110.
04What if switching supplier is the better answer?
See the Supplier Switch use case: it walks through linking a backup supplier and ordering from it.
Lead-Time Drift
Ready to transform your lead-time drift?
See how Otiox can solve your specific challenges.